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A Matter...
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The unbearable levity of economic forecasts…
One of the most disliked/undesirable phenomena in economic life is 'uncertainty'. This leads to the popularity of
people/institutions that can predict/foresee the future well. If the predictions come true, this gives the person/institution
that made the prediction a sense of self-confidence and encourages them to make new predictions.
But what is interesting is that those who deal with the Economics, whose laboratory is essentially society, do not look favorably
on making such predictions. Because there are always as many scenarios as there are people in the laboratory, so there is always
a margin of error in these predictions. Therefore, the duty of an Economist or the expectation from him/her should not be to make
predictions about the future, in other words, s/he should not be a futurist.
So what is/should be expected from an Economist? It is to make analyses and evaluations for the future by taking into account
past (adaptive) and current (rational) data. This means that the analyses and evaluations made should be based on scientific and
real data rather than gossip.
But what can you do, just like a broken clock being right twice a day, if even 1 out of 10 predictions made by economic
futurists (?) come true, the interest/demand/favor for these people/institutions increases and this gives them an unbearable
feeling of levity due to their few accurate predictions despite all their inaccurate claims...
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The
Others...
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A Book...
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Experimental Economics (Deneysel İktisat)
This book deals with Experimental Economics, which aims to include laboratory studies into Economics.
Experimental Economics aims to develop methods that will enable understanding of economic behavior by conducting laboratory
experiments in Economics.
The most important contribution of experimental studies in economic research is that they help find answers to the question of
how valid Economic theories are.
The book includes seven chapters on Experimental Economics. In these chapters, Experimental Economics is discussed
in the context of history, debate, methodology, application and criticism.
The editors/authors particularly draw attention to the following point in the book: "The absolute superiority of research on
experimentation and measurement over research based on observation should never...
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The
Others...
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A
Saying...
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Everything believed to be impossible is only impossible until someone does it.
-Nelson Mandela / Robert A. Heinlein / Anthony Robbins-
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The Others...
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